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Nacional AM vs CSA Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Final ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 00:00

Nacional AM

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLLW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

CSA

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.7%0-114.4%0-27.0%0-32.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.9%1-113.5%1-26.6%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.5%2-16.4%2-23.1%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.0%3-12.0%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.6% 36.4% 2.75 -4.9%

Draw 31.2% 40.0% 2.50 -22.0%

Away win 34.2% 38.2% 2.62 -10.4%

Over 2.5 38.8% 38.2% 2.62 +1.7%

Over 3.5 20.7% 20.0% 5.00 +2.1%

BTTS 47.2% 48.8% 2.05 -3.2%

Home O1.5 30.9% 30.8% 3.25 +0.4%

Away O1.5 27.4% 30.8% 3.25 -6.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.2%

D 31% / xG 0.9-1.0 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.7%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 1–0 13.9%

#4 0–1 14.4%

#5 0–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nacional AM0.9

CSA1.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.8% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NACIONAL AM · PPG 1.67

CSA · PPG 1.56

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.03, combined xG 1.91 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nacional AM (H) 34.6%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -4.9%

Draw 31.2%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -22.0%

CSA (A) 34.2%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nacional AM face CSA in Brazil - Serie D on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nacional AM a 35% chance, the draw 31% and CSA 34%, so Nacional AM are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Nacional AM and 1.0 for CSA (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nacional AM are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.56 for CSA. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 3-1.

Nacional AM vs CSA Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Match Preview & Prediction

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