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Gama vs Sao Jose Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Quarter-finals ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 19:00

Gama

PPG 2.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sao Jose

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-15.1%0-21.2%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-019.3%1-18.9%1-22.1%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.7%2-17.7%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-09.7%3-14.5%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-12.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.3% 63.7% 1.57 -0.6%

Draw 22.1% 30.3% 3.30 -16.2%

Away win 14.6% 17.4% 5.75 -9.6%

Over 2.5 45.9% 42.0% 2.38 +9.2%

Over 3.5 26.0% 22.2% 4.50 +10.2%

BTTS 44.6% 40.0% 2.50 +11.5%

Home O1.5 49.2% 50.0% 2.00 -1.6%

Away O1.5 15.9% 16.7% 6.00 -2.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 22%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob44.6%

H 63% / xG 1.7-0.5 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.3%

#2 2–0 16.7%

#3 0–0 11.1%

#4 1–1 8.9%

#5 3–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gama1.7

Sao Jose0.5

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GAMA · PPG 2.75

SAO JOSE · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.27 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Gama (H) 63.3%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -0.6%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -16.2%

Sao Jose (A) 14.6%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV -9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gama face Sao Jose in Brazil - Serie D on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gama a 63% chance, the draw 22% and Sao Jose 15%, so Gama are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Gama and 0.5 for Sao Jose (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gama are averaging 2.75 points per game versus 0.88 for Sao Jose. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +11.5%.

Gama vs Sao Jose Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Match Preview & Prediction

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