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CSA vs Nacional AM Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Final ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 23:00

CSA

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Nacional AM

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-15.1%0-22.3%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.4%1-110.1%1-24.5%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.2%2-19.9%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.3%3-16.5%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-15.0%4+-22.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 67.6% 1.48 -21.6%

Draw 23.1% 31.3% 3.20 -15.7%

Away win 23.9% 14.3% 7.00 +40.4%

Over 2.5 53.8% 45.5% 2.20 +18.4%

Over 3.5 32.8% 25.0% 4.00 +31.2%

BTTS 52.9% 45.5% 2.20 +16.4%

Home O1.5 55.8% 52.4% 1.91 +6.6%

Away O1.5 25.5% 22.2% 4.50 +8.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.9%

H 53% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–0 11.2%

#3 1–0 11.4%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 1–2 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CSA2.0

Nacional AM0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CSA · PPG 2.00

NACIONAL AM · PPG 1.56

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.08 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

CSA (H) 53.0%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -21.6%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -15.7%

Nacional AM (A) 23.9%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +40.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

CSA face Nacional AM in Brazil - Serie D on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CSA a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Nacional AM 24%, so CSA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for CSA and 0.9 for Nacional AM (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CSA are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.56 for Nacional AM. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +34.4%.

CSA vs Nacional AM Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie D Predictions