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ASA vs Gama Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Semi-finals ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 20:00

ASA

PPG 2.11 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDWD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Gama

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 47.6% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.2%0-111.3%0-24.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.3%1-112.9%1-24.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.9%2-17.4%2-22.7%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.8%3-12.8%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% 41.7% 2.40 +8.5%

Draw 27.8% 35.7% 2.80 -13.3%

Away win 27.0% 33.3% 3.00 -11.4%

Over 2.5 42.7% 42.0% 2.38 +1.6%

Over 3.5 22.2% 23.1% 4.33 -2.3%

BTTS 47.6% 50.0% 2.00 -4.8%

Home O1.5 30.6% 36.4% 2.75 -15.8%

Away O1.5 17.9% 29.4% 3.40 -23.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.6%

H 45% / xG 1.1-0.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.3%

#2 0–0 15.2%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 0–1 11.3%

#5 2–0✓ 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ASA1.1

Gama0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 22.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ASA · PPG 2.11

GAMA · PPG 1.89

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.40, combined xG 1.89 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

ASA (H) 45.2%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +8.5%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -13.3%

Gama (A) 27.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -11.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

ASA face Gama in Brazil - Serie D on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ASA a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Gama 27%, so ASA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for ASA and 0.7 for Gama (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ASA are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 1.89 for Gama. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +8.7%. This match finished 2-0.

ASA vs Gama Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Match Preview & Prediction

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