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Uberlandia vs ABC Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Semi-finals ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 20:00

Uberlandia

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

ABC

PPG 2.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.9%0-113.1%0-25.8%0-31.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.3%1-113.4%1-25.9%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.8%2-16.9%2-23.0%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.7%3-12.3%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% 38.5% 2.60 -6.4%

Draw 33.8% 40.0% 2.50 -15.5%

Away win 30.2% 35.7% 2.80 -15.4%

Over 2.5 40.6% 38.2% 2.62 +6.4%

Over 3.5 20.6% 20.0% 5.00 +1.8%

BTTS 47.6% 47.6% 2.10 -0.0%

Home O1.5 30.6% 38.2% 2.62 -19.8%

Away O1.5 22.8% 26.7% 3.75 -8.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.6%

D 34% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.9%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 1–0✓ 15.3%

#4 0–1 13.1%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Uberlandia1.0

ABC0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.6% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

UBERLANDIA · PPG 1.67

ABC · PPG 2.11

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.14, combined xG 1.90 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Uberlandia (H) 36.0%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -6.4%

Draw 33.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -15.5%

ABC (A) 30.2%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -15.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Uberlandia face ABC in Brazil - Serie D on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Uberlandia a 36% chance, the draw 34% and ABC 30%, so Uberlandia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Uberlandia and 0.9 for ABC (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Uberlandia are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 2.11 for ABC. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +7.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Uberlandia vs ABC Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Match Preview & Prediction

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