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ABC vs Nacional AM Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Quarter-finals ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 20:00

ABC

PPG 2.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Nacional AM

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-17.0%0-22.2%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.6%1-110.9%1-23.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.8%2-18.6%2-22.7%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.2%3-14.5%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-12.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.7% 59.9% 1.67 -8.6%

Draw 24.0% 30.8% 3.25 -13.2%

Away win 21.4% 21.1% 4.75 +1.0%

Over 2.5 45.9% 44.4% 2.25 +3.3%

Over 3.5 26.6% 25.0% 4.00 +3.8%

BTTS 47.7% 45.5% 2.20 +4.9%

Home O1.5 46.1% 50.0% 2.00 -7.8%

Away O1.5 17.2% 22.2% 4.50 -13.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 22%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.7%

H 55% / xG 1.6-0.6 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.6%

#2 2–0 13.8%

#3 0–0 11.2%

#4 1–1 10.9%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ABC1.6

Nacional AM0.6

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ABC · PPG 2.25

NACIONAL AM · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.95 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

ABC (H) 54.7%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -8.6%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -13.2%

Nacional AM (A) 21.4%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +1.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

ABC face Nacional AM in Brazil - Serie D on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ABC a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Nacional AM 21%, so ABC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for ABC and 0.6 for Nacional AM (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ABC are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.75 for Nacional AM. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +4.9%.

ABC vs Nacional AM Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Match Preview & Prediction

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