Today / Brazil - Serie D / Sao Jose vs Goiatuba EC

Sao Jose vs Goiatuba EC Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Final ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 22:00

Sao Jose

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDLD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Goiatuba EC

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.7%0-118.5%0-26.7%0-31.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.4%1-111.8%1-24.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-05.2%2-13.8%2-21.4%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.1%3-10.8%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.7% 51.3% 1.95 -26.4%

Draw 34.9% 32.3% 3.10 +8.2%

Away win 36.4% 28.6% 3.50 +27.4%

Over 2.5 34.2% 36.4% 2.75 -5.9%

Over 3.5 14.2% 18.2% 5.50 -13.1%

BTTS 42.6% 42.0% 2.38 +1.4%

Home O1.5 30.9% 30.8% 3.25 +0.4%

Away O1.5 18.2% 25.0% 4.00 -16.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob42.6%

D 35% / xG 0.6-0.7 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 25.7%

#2 0–1 18.5%

#3 1–0 16.4%

#4 1–1 11.8%

#5 0–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sao Jose0.6

Goiatuba EC0.7

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 14.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SAO JOSE · PPG 1.78

GOIATUBA EC · PPG 1.56

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.08, combined xG 1.36 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sao Jose (H) 28.7%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -26.4%

Draw 34.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +8.2%

Goiatuba EC (A) 36.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +27.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sao Jose face Goiatuba EC in Brazil - Serie D on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sao Jose a 29% chance, the draw 35% and Goiatuba EC 36%, so Goiatuba EC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Sao Jose and 0.7 for Goiatuba EC (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sao Jose are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.56 for Goiatuba EC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +2.6%. This match finished 0-0.

Sao Jose vs Goiatuba EC Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie D Predictions