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Kifisia vs AEK Athens FC Prediction— Greece - Super League 1

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 18:00

Kifisia

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

D ····

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

AEK Athens FC

PPG 1.79 · AWAY

LAST 5

WD ···

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 40.2% vs bookmaker-implied 75.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-19.5%0-26.2%0-32.7%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.6%1-112.5%1-28.1%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.3%2-18.2%2-25.4%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.8%3-13.6%3-22.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.6%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.5% 11.0% 9.10 +213.9%

Draw 25.3% 22.5% 4.45 +7.5%

Away win 40.2% 75.8% 1.32 -46.9%

Over 2.5 50.5% 58.8% 1.70 -14.1%

Over 3.5 28.7% 37.7% 2.65 -14.4%

BTTS 52.7% 51.8% 1.93 +1.7%

Home O1.5 37.2% 20.0% 5.00 +86.0%

Away O1.5 38.0% 69.0% 1.45 -44.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.7%

A 40% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.5%

#2 1–2 8.1%

#3 0–1 9.5%

#4 2–1 8.2%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kifisia1.3

AEK Athens FC1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KIFISIA · PPG 1.29

AEK ATHENS FC · PPG 1.79

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.02 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kifisia (H) 34.5%

ODDS 9.10 · IMPLIED 11.0% EV +213.9%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV +7.5%

AEK Athens FC (A) 40.2%

ODDS 1.32 · IMPLIED 75.8% EV -46.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kifisia face AEK Athens FC in Greece - Super League 1 on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kifisia a 35% chance, the draw 25% and AEK Athens FC 40%, so AEK Athens FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Kifisia and 1.3 for AEK Athens FC (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kifisia are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.79 for AEK Athens FC. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +139.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Kifisia vs AEK Athens FC Prediction— Greece - Super League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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