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General Velásquez vs Real San Joaquín Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Relegation Group · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 18:00

General Velásquez

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Real San Joaquín

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-19.1%0-25.7%0-32.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.9%1-112.5%1-27.8%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.8%2-18.5%2-25.4%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.1%3-13.9%3-22.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.8%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.4% 60.6% 1.65 -31.7%

Draw 24.4% 28.6% 3.50 -8.8%

Away win 34.2% 21.1% 4.75 +62.5%

Over 2.5 53.8% 48.1% 2.08 +11.9%

Over 3.5 31.7% 27.9% 3.58 +13.5%

BTTS 55.9% 52.6% 1.90 +6.2%

Home O1.5 39.5% 51.5% 1.94 -23.4%

Away O1.5 36.8% 26.0% 3.85 +41.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 32%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.9%

H 41% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–0 9.9%

#4 1–2 7.8%

#5 0–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

General Velásquez1.4

Real San Joaquín1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GENERAL VELÁSQUEZ · PPG 1.75

REAL SAN JOAQUÍN · PPG 1.43

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

54%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.11 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

General Velásquez (H) 41.4%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -31.7%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.8%

Real San Joaquín (A) 34.2%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +62.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

General Velásquez face Real San Joaquín in Chile - Segunda División on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives General Velásquez a 41% chance, the draw 24% and Real San Joaquín 34%, so General Velásquez are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for General Velásquez and 1.3 for Real San Joaquín (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, General Velásquez are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.43 for Real San Joaquín. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +41.7%.

General Velásquez vs Real San Joaquín Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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