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Municipal Salamanca vs Concón National Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Promotion Group · Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 19:00

Municipal Salamanca

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLW

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Concón National

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-027.5%0-113.8%0-23.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.7%1-110.9%1-22.7%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.6%2-14.3%2-21.1%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.3%3-11.1%3-20.3%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% 52.4% 1.91 -17.1%

Draw 33.3% 35.7% 2.80 -6.8%

Away win 23.3% 25.6% 3.90 -5.5%

Over 2.5 34.5% 44.4% 2.25 -22.4%

Over 3.5 15.5% 25.1% 3.98 -23.0%

BTTS 43.6% 51.3% 1.95 -15.0%

Home O1.5 30.6% 45.7% 2.19 -33.0%

Away O1.5 16.4% 25.6% 3.90 -21.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 32%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob43.6%

H 43% / xG 0.8-0.5 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.7%

#2 0–0 27.5%

#3 0–1 13.8%

#4 2–0 8.6%

#5 1–1 10.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Municipal Salamanca0.8

Concón National0.5

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.5% · O3.5 PROB 15.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MUNICIPAL SALAMANCA · PPG 1.67

CONCÓN NATIONAL · PPG 1.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.29, combined xG 1.29 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Municipal Salamanca (H) 43.4%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -17.1%

Draw 33.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -6.8%

Concón National (A) 23.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Municipal Salamanca face Concón National in Chile - Segunda División on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Municipal Salamanca a 43% chance, the draw 33% and Concón National 23%, so Municipal Salamanca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Municipal Salamanca and 0.5 for Concón National (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Municipal Salamanca are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.86 for Concón National. This match finished 0-2.

Municipal Salamanca vs Concón National Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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