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Linares Unido vs Colchagua Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Promotion Group · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 20:00

Linares Unido

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDL

UPCOMING

Colchagua

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-111.5%0-25.4%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.2%1-113.3%1-26.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.3%2-17.8%2-23.6%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.2%3-13.0%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.8% 54.1% 1.85 -24.5%

Draw 30.3% 31.3% 3.20 -3.0%

Away win 28.9% 28.6% 3.50 +0.7%

Over 2.5 42.7% 48.8% 2.05 -12.5%

Over 3.5 20.9% 26.2% 3.82 -12.1%

BTTS 48.0% 52.4% 1.91 -8.3%

Home O1.5 31.8% 49.5% 2.02 -35.8%

Away O1.5 26.1% 29.9% 3.35 -7.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 32%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.0%

H 41% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 1–0 14.2%

#3 0–0 12.2%

#4 0–1 11.5%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Linares Unido1.2

Colchagua0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LINARES UNIDO · PPG 1.25

COLCHAGUA · PPG 1.71

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

48%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.22, combined xG 2.10 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Linares Unido (H) 40.8%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -24.5%

Draw 30.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -3.0%

Colchagua (A) 28.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Linares Unido face Colchagua in Chile - Segunda División on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Linares Unido a 41% chance, the draw 30% and Colchagua 29%, so Linares Unido are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Linares Unido and 0.9 for Colchagua (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Linares Unido are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.71 for Colchagua.

Linares Unido vs Colchagua Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Chile - Segunda División Predictions