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Lota Schwager vs Santiago Morning Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Relegation Group · Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 20:00

Lota Schwager

PPG 1.14 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Santiago Morning

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-110.2%0-24.8%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.8%1-113.1%1-26.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.9%2-18.4%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.8%3-13.6%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 43.5% 2.30 +3.5%

Draw 26.4% 34.7% 2.88 -14.4%

Away win 28.6% 34.5% 2.90 -10.2%

Over 2.5 50.1% 45.5% 2.20 +10.2%

Over 3.5 28.2% 24.7% 4.05 +8.5%

BTTS 53.0% 54.1% 1.85 -1.9%

Home O1.5 37.8% 40.3% 2.48 -6.3%

Away O1.5 25.7% 32.9% 3.04 -13.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 32%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.0%

H 45% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.8%

#2 1–1✓ 13.1%

#3 0–0 10.8%

#4 2–0 8.9%

#5 0–1 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lota Schwager1.3

Santiago Morning0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LOTA SCHWAGER · PPG 1.14

SANTIAGO MORNING · PPG 0.86

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.34, combined xG 2.23 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lota Schwager (H) 45.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +3.5%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -14.4%

Santiago Morning (A) 28.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -10.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lota Schwager face Santiago Morning in Chile - Segunda División on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lota Schwager a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Santiago Morning 29%, so Lota Schwager are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Lota Schwager and 0.9 for Santiago Morning (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lota Schwager are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 0.86 for Santiago Morning. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Lota Schwager vs Santiago Morning Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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