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Concón National vs Linares Unido Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Promotion Group · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 20:00

Concón National

PPG 1.14 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Linares Unido

PPG 2.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-112.3%0-27.2%0-32.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.3%1-113.3%1-27.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.1%2-17.2%2-24.2%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.2%3-12.6%3-21.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.3% 40.0% 2.50 -11.8%

Draw 27.3% 34.5% 2.90 -12.5%

Away win 37.4% 40.0% 2.50 -6.5%

Over 2.5 44.8% 47.6% 2.10 -5.9%

Over 3.5 27.0% 27.9% 3.58 -2.0%

BTTS 51.9% 55.6% 1.80 -6.6%

Home O1.5 30.9% 39.4% 2.54 -21.5%

Away O1.5 33.0% 38.3% 2.61 -13.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 32%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob51.9%

A 37% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 45% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–1 12.3%

#3 1–0 11.3%

#4 0–0 10.4%

#5 1–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Concón National1.1

Linares Unido1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CONCÓN NATIONAL · PPG 1.14

LINARES UNIDO · PPG 2.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.09, combined xG 2.26 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Concón National (H) 35.3%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -11.8%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.5%

Linares Unido (A) 37.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Concón National face Linares Unido in Chile - Segunda División on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Concón National a 35% chance, the draw 27% and Linares Unido 37%, so Linares Unido are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Concón National and 1.2 for Linares Unido (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Concón National are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 2.29 for Linares Unido. This match finished 3-1.

Concón National vs Linares Unido Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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