Today / Chile - Segunda División / Santiago Morning vs Provincial Ovalle

Santiago Morning vs Provincial Ovalle Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Relegation Group · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 19:00

Santiago Morning

PPG 1.14 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Provincial Ovalle

PPG 0.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.8% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-18.2%0-23.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.1%1-112.1%1-24.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.2%2-19.0%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.5%3-14.4%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.9% 57.8% 1.73 -13.7%

Draw 26.3% 29.9% 3.35 -7.1%

Away win 23.8% 22.2% 4.50 +4.3%

Over 2.5 50.5% 46.5% 2.15 +8.6%

Over 3.5 28.7% 25.3% 3.95 +8.0%

BTTS 50.8% 51.3% 1.95 -0.9%

Home O1.5 40.1% 51.3% 1.95 -21.8%

Away O1.5 23.5% 25.0% 4.00 -3.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 32%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob50.8%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.1%

#2 1–1 12.1%

#3 2–0 11.2%

#4 0–0✓ 10.2%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santiago Morning1.5

Provincial Ovalle0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTIAGO MORNING · PPG 1.14

PROVINCIAL OVALLE · PPG 0.14

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.68 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Santiago Morning (H) 49.9%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -13.7%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -7.1%

Provincial Ovalle (A) 23.8%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santiago Morning face Provincial Ovalle in Chile - Segunda División on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santiago Morning a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Provincial Ovalle 24%, so Santiago Morning are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Santiago Morning and 0.8 for Provincial Ovalle (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santiago Morning are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 0.14 for Provincial Ovalle. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +11.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Santiago Morning vs Provincial Ovalle Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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