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Santiago City vs Concón National Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Promotion Group · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 19:30

Santiago City

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWD

UPCOMING

Concón National

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-19.8%0-27.3%0-33.6%0-4+1.9%1 1-08.1%1-112.1%1-29.0%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.0%2-17.4%2-25.5%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.0%3-13.1%3-22.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.4% 42.0% 2.38 -25.3%

Draw 24.5% 32.3% 3.10 -14.4%

Away win 44.1% 38.5% 2.60 +14.7%

Over 2.5 53.8% 55.6% 1.80 -3.2%

Over 3.5 32.8% 34.2% 2.92 -4.2%

BTTS 55.9% 61.7% 1.62 -9.4%

Home O1.5 34.0% 45.5% 2.20 -25.2%

Away O1.5 42.2% 42.6% 2.35 -0.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 32%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.9%

A 44% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 0–1 9.8%

#4 2–1 7.4%

#5 0–2 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santiago City1.2

Concón National1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTIAGO CITY · PPG 2.00

CONCÓN NATIONAL · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.26 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Santiago City (H) 31.4%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -25.3%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.4%

Concón National (A) 44.1%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santiago City face Concón National in Chile - Segunda División on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santiago City a 31% chance, the draw 25% and Concón National 44%, so Concón National are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Santiago City and 1.5 for Concón National (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santiago City are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Concón National. The best value bet our model finds is TT_AwayO25, with an expected value of +2.4%.

Santiago City vs Concón National Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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