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Colchagua vs Municipal Salamanca Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Promotion Group · Matchday 4 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 22:00

Colchagua

PPG 1.57 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Municipal Salamanca

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.6%0-117.3%0-25.8%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.6%1-111.9%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-06.0%2-14.1%2-21.4%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.4%3-10.9%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.2% 45.5% 2.20 -33.6%

Draw 34.7% 33.3% 3.00 +4.1%

Away win 35.1% 31.3% 3.20 +12.3%

Over 2.5 34.5% 42.0% 2.38 -17.9%

Over 3.5 13.4% 22.2% 4.50 -23.8%

BTTS 41.7% 51.3% 1.95 -18.7%

Home O1.5 30.8% 40.0% 2.50 -23.0%

Away O1.5 18.8% 30.3% 3.30 -22.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 32%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob41.7%

D 35% / xG 0.7-0.7 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 25.6%

#2 0–1✓ 17.3%

#3 1–0 17.6%

#4 1–1 11.9%

#5 0–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colchagua0.7

Municipal Salamanca0.7

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.5% · O3.5 PROB 13.4%

Form & verdict PPG

COLCHAGUA · PPG 1.57

MUNICIPAL SALAMANCA · PPG 2.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.01, combined xG 1.36 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Colchagua (H) 30.2%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -33.6%

Draw 34.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +4.1%

Municipal Salamanca (A) 35.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +12.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Colchagua face Municipal Salamanca in Chile - Segunda División on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colchagua a 30% chance, the draw 35% and Municipal Salamanca 35%, so Municipal Salamanca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Colchagua and 0.7 for Municipal Salamanca (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colchagua are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 2.00 for Municipal Salamanca. This match finished 0-1.

Colchagua vs Municipal Salamanca Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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