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Colina vs Lota Schwager Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Relegation Group · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 20:00

Colina

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Lota Schwager

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-110.9%0-25.5%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.1%1-113.3%1-26.7%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.9%2-18.1%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.2%3-13.3%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.2% 40.0% 2.50 +8.0%

Draw 27.3% 34.5% 2.90 -12.5%

Away win 29.5% 40.0% 2.50 -15.8%

Over 2.5 50.5% 50.0% 2.00 +1.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 27.0% 3.70 +3.7%

BTTS 52.7% 55.6% 1.80 -5.1%

Home O1.5 32.8% 38.9% 2.57 -15.7%

Away O1.5 32.4% 38.3% 2.61 -15.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 32%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.7%

H 43% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 1–0 13.1%

#3 0–0✓ 10.8%

#4 0–1 10.9%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colina1.2

Lota Schwager1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

COLINA · PPG 1.00

LOTA SCHWAGER · PPG 1.14

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.20, combined xG 2.23 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Colina (H) 43.2%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +8.0%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.5%

Lota Schwager (A) 29.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -15.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Colina face Lota Schwager in Chile - Segunda División on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colina a 43% chance, the draw 27% and Lota Schwager 30%, so Colina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Colina and 1.0 for Lota Schwager (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colina are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.14 for Lota Schwager. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Colina vs Lota Schwager Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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