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Linares Unido vs Santiago City Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Promotion Group · Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 20:00

Linares Unido

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Santiago City

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-16.1%0-23.4%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.7%1-110.9%1-26.1%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.8%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.2%3-15.8%3-23.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-13.9%4+-22.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 57.1% 1.75 -7.8%

Draw 23.1% 29.4% 3.40 -12.9%

Away win 24.2% 26.3% 3.80 -4.8%

Over 2.5 59.7% 55.6% 1.80 +7.5%

Over 3.5 36.6% 33.7% 2.97 +8.7%

BTTS 58.2% 57.1% 1.75 +1.8%

Home O1.5 48.8% 55.2% 1.81 -11.7%

Away O1.5 35.6% 31.1% 3.22 +14.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 32%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.2%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.7%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 1–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Linares Unido1.8

Santiago City1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LINARES UNIDO · PPG 1.29

SANTIAGO CITY · PPG 1.57

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Linares Unido (H) 52.7%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -7.8%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -12.9%

Santiago City (A) 24.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -4.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Linares Unido face Santiago City in Chile - Segunda División on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Linares Unido a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Santiago City 24%, so Linares Unido are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Linares Unido and 1.1 for Santiago City (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Linares Unido are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.57 for Santiago City. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +14.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Linares Unido vs Santiago City Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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