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Comunicaciones vs Deportivo Merlo Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 33 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 22:00

Comunicaciones

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Deportivo Merlo

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.0 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 38.8% vs bookmaker-implied 38.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.7%0-110.4%0-23.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.9%1-112.8%1-24.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.4%2-17.8%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.3%3-13.2%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.5% 52.4% 1.91 -15.0%

Draw 31.6% 35.7% 2.80 -11.5%

Away win 23.9% 22.7% 4.40 +3.1%

Over 2.5 38.8% 38.2% 2.62 +1.7%

Over 3.5 19.0% 20.0% 5.00 -3.0%

BTTS 42.7% 46.5% 2.15 -8.2%

Home O1.5 33.9% 40.0% 2.50 -15.3%

Away O1.5 20.1% 22.2% 4.50 -5.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 173 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 68%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob42.7%

H 44% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.7%

#2 1–0✓ 16.9%

#3 1–1 12.8%

#4 2–0 10.4%

#5 0–1 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Comunicaciones1.2

Deportivo Merlo0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.8% · O3.5 PROB 19.0%

Form & verdict PPG

COMUNICACIONES · PPG 1.38

DEPORTIVO MERLO · PPG 1.06

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.47, combined xG 1.98 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Comunicaciones (H) 44.5%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -15.0%

Draw 31.6%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -11.5%

Deportivo Merlo (A) 23.9%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +3.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Comunicaciones face Deportivo Merlo in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Comunicaciones a 45% chance, the draw 32% and Deportivo Merlo 24%, so Comunicaciones are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Comunicaciones and 0.8 for Deportivo Merlo (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Comunicaciones are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.06 for Deportivo Merlo. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +21.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Comunicaciones vs Deportivo Merlo Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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