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Ashdod vs Hapoel Kfar Shalem Prediction— Israel - Liga Leumit

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 16:00

Ashdod

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

LWW ··

UPCOMING

Hapoel Kfar Shalem

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS 63% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 63.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-17.8%0-25.9%0-33.0%0-4+1.6%1 1-07.4%1-111.3%1-28.6%1-34.4%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.4%2-18.2%2-26.3%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.6%3-14.0%3-23.0%3-31.5%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.0%4+-21.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.0% 55.6% 1.80 -33.4%

Draw 24.4% 27.8% 3.60 -7.3%

Away win 38.6% 27.9% 3.58 +38.2%

Over 2.5 59.6% 60.6% 1.65 -1.7%

Over 3.5 36.4% 39.1% 2.56 -6.8%

BTTS 61.5% 63.3% 1.58 -2.8%

Home O1.5 39.9% 56.8% 1.76 -29.8%

Away O1.5 47.9% 37.3% 2.68 +28.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 15%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.5%

A 39% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 0–1 7.8%

#5 1–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ashdod1.5

Hapoel Kfar Shalem1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ASHDOD · PPG 1.75

HAPOEL KFAR SHALEM · PPG 1.29

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

63%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.07 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ashdod (H) 37.0%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -33.4%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.3%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem (A) 38.6%

ODDS 3.58 · IMPLIED 27.9% EV +38.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ashdod face Hapoel Kfar Shalem in Israel - Liga Leumit on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ashdod a 37% chance, the draw 24% and Hapoel Kfar Shalem 39%, so Hapoel Kfar Shalem are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Ashdod and 1.5 for Hapoel Kfar Shalem (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ashdod are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.29 for Hapoel Kfar Shalem. The best value bet our model finds is RES_A/O15, with an expected value of +49.0%.

Ashdod vs Hapoel Kfar Shalem Prediction— Israel - Liga Leumit

Match Preview & Prediction

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