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Maccabi Ahi Nazareth vs Maccabi Bnei Raina Prediction— Israel - Liga Leumit

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 09:00

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LLW ··

UPCOMING

Maccabi Bnei Raina

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-19.3%0-26.6%0-33.1%0-4+1.5%1 1-08.5%1-112.1%1-28.6%1-34.1%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.6%2-17.9%2-25.6%2-32.7%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.4%3-13.5%3-22.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.1% 30.8% 3.25 +20.6%

Draw 25.7% 30.8% 3.25 -9.9%

Away win 37.1% 50.0% 2.00 -25.8%

Over 2.5 53.8% 52.6% 1.90 +2.2%

Over 3.5 31.7% 30.8% 3.25 +3.0%

BTTS 55.9% 57.8% 1.73 -3.3%

Home O1.5 38.4% 38.8% 2.58 -0.9%

Away O1.5 42.2% 50.3% 1.99 -16.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 15%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.9%

H 37% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 7.9%

#3 1–2 8.6%

#4 1–0 8.5%

#5 0–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth1.3

Maccabi Bnei Raina1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MACCABI AHI NAZARETH · PPG 1.25

MACCABI BNEI RAINA · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

57%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.12 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth (H) 37.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +20.6%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -9.9%

Maccabi Bnei Raina (A) 37.1%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -25.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth face Maccabi Bnei Raina in Israel - Liga Leumit on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maccabi Ahi Nazareth a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Maccabi Bnei Raina 37%, so Maccabi Ahi Nazareth are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Maccabi Ahi Nazareth and 1.4 for Maccabi Bnei Raina (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maccabi Ahi Nazareth are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.75 for Maccabi Bnei Raina. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +17.2%.

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth vs Maccabi Bnei Raina Prediction— Israel - Liga Leumit

Match Preview & Prediction

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