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Hapoel Ra'anana vs Hapoel Kfar Saba Prediction— Israel - Liga Leumit

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 09:00

Hapoel Ra'anana

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

WWL ··

UPCOMING

Hapoel Kfar Saba

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLW ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 54% chance

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+16.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-17.9%0-25.2%0-32.3%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.9%1-111.8%1-27.8%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.6%2-18.8%2-25.9%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.3%3-14.4%3-22.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.3%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 44.4% 2.25 +2.1%

Draw 24.5% 30.8% 3.25 -12.2%

Away win 30.1% 36.4% 2.75 -17.2%

Over 2.5 59.6% 51.3% 1.95 +16.2%

Over 3.5 36.4% 30.8% 3.25 +18.3%

BTTS 59.0% 57.8% 1.73 +2.1%

Home O1.5 39.9% 44.6% 2.24 -10.6%

Away O1.5 42.2% 38.9% 2.57 +8.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 15%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.0%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–0 8.9%

#4 2–0 6.6%

#5 1–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hapoel Ra'anana1.5

Hapoel Kfar Saba1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

HAPOEL RA'ANANA · PPG 1.62

HAPOEL KFAR SABA · PPG 1.44

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

54%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hapoel Ra'anana (H) 45.4%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +2.1%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.2%

Hapoel Kfar Saba (A) 30.1%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -17.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hapoel Ra'anana face Hapoel Kfar Saba in Israel - Liga Leumit on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hapoel Ra'anana a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Hapoel Kfar Saba 30%, so Hapoel Ra'anana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Hapoel Ra'anana and 1.3 for Hapoel Kfar Saba (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hapoel Ra'anana are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.44 for Hapoel Kfar Saba. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.3%.

Hapoel Ra'anana vs Hapoel Kfar Saba Prediction— Israel - Liga Leumit

Match Preview & Prediction

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