Today / Israel - Liga Leumit / Maccabi Herzliya vs Hapoel Kfar Saba

Maccabi Herzliya vs Hapoel Kfar Saba Prediction— Israel - Liga Leumit

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 16:00

Maccabi Herzliya

PPG 1.32 · HOME

LAST 5

WLL ··

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Hapoel Kfar Saba

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLW ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-16.8%0-24.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.0%1-111.3%1-27.1%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.4%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.2%3-15.2%3-23.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.1%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.2% 51.3% 1.95 -6.0%

Draw 24.5% 28.6% 3.50 -8.6%

Away win 27.3% 30.8% 3.25 -6.8%

Over 2.5 53.5% 58.8% 1.70 -9.0%

Over 3.5 33.4% 36.4% 2.75 -8.2%

BTTS 55.0% 63.7% 1.57 -13.7%

Home O1.5 48.9% 54.6% 1.83 -10.5%

Away O1.5 36.6% 39.2% 2.55 -6.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 15%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.0%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.5%

#4 1–0 9.0%

#5 1–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maccabi Herzliya1.7

Hapoel Kfar Saba1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 33.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MACCABI HERZLIYA · PPG 1.32

HAPOEL KFAR SABA · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Maccabi Herzliya (H) 48.2%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -6.0%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.6%

Hapoel Kfar Saba (A) 27.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -6.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maccabi Herzliya face Hapoel Kfar Saba in Israel - Liga Leumit on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maccabi Herzliya a 48% chance, the draw 25% and Hapoel Kfar Saba 27%, so Maccabi Herzliya are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Maccabi Herzliya and 1.3 for Hapoel Kfar Saba (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maccabi Herzliya are averaging 1.32 points per game versus 1.18 for Hapoel Kfar Saba. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +7.5%. This match finished 0-2.

Maccabi Herzliya vs Hapoel Kfar Saba Prediction— Israel - Liga Leumit

Match Preview & Prediction

More Israel - Liga Leumit Predictions