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Bnei Yehuda vs Hapoel Kfar Shalem Prediction— Israel - Liga Leumit

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 16:00

Bnei Yehuda

PPG 1.57 · HOME

LAST 5

WWW ··

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Hapoel Kfar Shalem

PPG 1.55 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.1% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-16.1%0-24.6%0-32.3%0-4+1.2%1 1-06.9%1-110.4%1-27.8%1-33.9%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.9%2-18.8%2-26.6%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.3%3-15.0%3-23.8%3-31.9%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.1%4+-22.3%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 54.1% 1.85 -16.8%

Draw 25.3% 28.2% 3.55 -6.1%

Away win 29.7% 28.2% 3.55 +3.3%

Over 2.5 56.4% 59.9% 1.67 -5.8%

Over 3.5 36.6% 38.2% 2.62 -4.1%

BTTS 57.1% 64.5% 1.55 -11.5%

Home O1.5 48.8% 57.8% 1.73 -15.6%

Away O1.5 43.8% 38.5% 2.60 +13.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 15%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob57.1%

H 45% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 2–0 5.9%

#5 2–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bnei Yehuda1.7

Hapoel Kfar Shalem1.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BNEI YEHUDA · PPG 1.57

HAPOEL KFAR SHALEM · PPG 1.55

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.19 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bnei Yehuda (H) 45.0%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -16.8%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -6.1%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem (A) 29.7%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +3.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bnei Yehuda face Hapoel Kfar Shalem in Israel - Liga Leumit on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bnei Yehuda a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Hapoel Kfar Shalem 30%, so Bnei Yehuda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Bnei Yehuda and 1.5 for Hapoel Kfar Shalem (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bnei Yehuda are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.55 for Hapoel Kfar Shalem. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +28.0%. This match finished 3-1.

Bnei Yehuda vs Hapoel Kfar Shalem Prediction— Israel - Liga Leumit

Match Preview & Prediction

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