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Kiryat Yam SC vs Hapoel Acre Prediction— Israel - Liga Leumit

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 16:00

Kiryat Yam SC

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

WLL ··

UPCOMING

Hapoel Acre

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLL ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 57% chance

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-16.3%0-23.6%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.7%1-111.0%1-26.3%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.6%2-19.7%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.0%3-15.7%3-23.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.7%4+-22.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 61.7% 1.62 -14.6%

Draw 23.5% 27.8% 3.60 -9.2%

Away win 23.8% 22.2% 4.50 +4.3%

Over 2.5 59.7% 55.6% 1.80 +7.5%

Over 3.5 36.5% 36.4% 2.75 +0.4%

BTTS 56.7% 55.6% 1.80 +2.1%

Home O1.5 49.9% 58.8% 1.70 -15.2%

Away O1.5 33.2% 28.6% 3.50 +16.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 15%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob56.7%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 1–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kiryat Yam SC1.8

Hapoel Acre1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KIRYAT YAM SC · PPG 1.25

HAPOEL ACRE · PPG 0.98

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

57%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.63 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Kiryat Yam SC (H) 52.7%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -14.6%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -9.2%

Hapoel Acre (A) 23.8%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kiryat Yam SC face Hapoel Acre in Israel - Liga Leumit on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kiryat Yam SC a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Hapoel Acre 24%, so Kiryat Yam SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Kiryat Yam SC and 1.1 for Hapoel Acre (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kiryat Yam SC are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.98 for Hapoel Acre. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +35.0%.

Kiryat Yam SC vs Hapoel Acre Prediction— Israel - Liga Leumit

Match Preview & Prediction

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