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Hapoel Kfar Shalem vs Kiryat Yam SC Prediction— Israel - Liga Leumit

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 16:00

Hapoel Kfar Shalem

PPG 1.72 · HOME

LAST 5

WLW ··

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Kiryat Yam SC

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLL ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-17.4%0-25.8%0-33.1%0-4+1.7%1 1-07.0%1-111.0%1-28.6%1-34.5%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.2%2-18.1%2-26.4%2-33.4%2-4+1.9%3 3-02.5%3-14.0%3-23.2%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.1%4+-21.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.4% 38.5% 2.60 -8.0%

Draw 24.0% 29.9% 3.35 -11.8%

Away win 40.6% 41.7% 2.40 -2.6%

Over 2.5 59.7% 58.8% 1.70 +1.5%

Over 3.5 36.7% 36.4% 2.75 +0.9%

BTTS 60.3% 64.5% 1.55 -6.5%

Home O1.5 40.1% 46.5% 2.15 -13.8%

Away O1.5 47.9% 47.6% 2.10 +0.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 15%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob60.3%

A 41% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 0–2 5.8%

#5 0–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hapoel Kfar Shalem1.5

Kiryat Yam SC1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HAPOEL KFAR SHALEM · PPG 1.72

KIRYAT YAM SC · PPG 1.71

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hapoel Kfar Shalem (H) 35.4%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -8.0%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -11.8%

Kiryat Yam SC (A) 40.6%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -2.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hapoel Kfar Shalem face Kiryat Yam SC in Israel - Liga Leumit on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hapoel Kfar Shalem a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Kiryat Yam SC 41%, so Kiryat Yam SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Hapoel Kfar Shalem and 1.6 for Kiryat Yam SC (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hapoel Kfar Shalem are averaging 1.72 points per game versus 1.71 for Kiryat Yam SC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 3-2.

Hapoel Kfar Shalem vs Kiryat Yam SC Prediction— Israel - Liga Leumit

Match Preview & Prediction

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