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Hapoel Rishon LeZion vs Kafr Qasim Prediction— Israel - Liga Leumit

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 16:00

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

PPG 1.68 · HOME

LAST 5

WWW ··

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Kafr Qasim

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-18.3%0-25.1%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.9%1-112.2%1-27.5%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.2%2-18.9%2-25.5%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.5%3-14.4%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.2%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.8% 47.6% 2.10 -8.0%

Draw 26.9% 31.3% 3.20 -8.3%

Away win 29.3% 32.3% 3.10 -5.5%

Over 2.5 51.0% 50.0% 2.00 +2.0%

Over 3.5 30.8% 28.6% 3.50 +7.8%

BTTS 54.3% 57.8% 1.73 -6.1%

Home O1.5 40.1% 46.5% 2.15 -13.8%

Away O1.5 36.6% 35.1% 2.85 +4.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 15%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.3%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1✓ 8.9%

#3 1–0 9.9%

#4 0–0 6.7%

#5 2–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hapoel Rishon LeZion1.5

Kafr Qasim1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.0% · O3.5 PROB 30.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HAPOEL RISHON LEZION · PPG 1.68

KAFR QASIM · PPG 1.07

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.24 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hapoel Rishon LeZion (H) 43.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -8.0%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.3%

Kafr Qasim (A) 29.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hapoel Rishon LeZion face Kafr Qasim in Israel - Liga Leumit on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hapoel Rishon LeZion a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Kafr Qasim 29%, so Hapoel Rishon LeZion are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Hapoel Rishon LeZion and 1.2 for Kafr Qasim (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hapoel Rishon LeZion are averaging 1.68 points per game versus 1.07 for Kafr Qasim. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +20.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Hapoel Rishon LeZion vs Kafr Qasim Prediction— Israel - Liga Leumit

Match Preview & Prediction

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