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Hapoel Afula vs Hapoel Ra'anana Prediction— Israel - Liga Leumit

Matchday 3 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 16:00

Hapoel Afula

PPG 1.54 · HOME

LAST 5

WWW ··

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Hapoel Ra'anana

PPG 1.72 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-19.7%0-26.3%0-32.7%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.6%1-112.5%1-28.2%1-33.6%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.3%2-18.1%2-25.3%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.7%3-13.5%3-22.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.5%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.1% 37.0% 2.70 +0.2%

Draw 27.0% 33.3% 3.00 -11.4%

Away win 35.9% 39.2% 2.55 -8.5%

Over 2.5 50.6% 45.5% 2.20 +11.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 25.3% 3.95 +8.0%

BTTS 52.9% 55.6% 1.80 -4.8%

Home O1.5 38.4% 37.0% 2.70 +3.7%

Away O1.5 40.0% 38.5% 2.60 +4.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 15%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.9%

H 37% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 2–1 8.1%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 0–0 7.4%

#5 1–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hapoel Afula1.3

Hapoel Ra'anana1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HAPOEL AFULA · PPG 1.54

HAPOEL RA'ANANA · PPG 1.72

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.00 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hapoel Afula (H) 37.1%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +0.2%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -11.4%

Hapoel Ra'anana (A) 35.9%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hapoel Afula face Hapoel Ra'anana in Israel - Liga Leumit on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hapoel Afula a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Hapoel Ra'anana 36%, so Hapoel Afula are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Hapoel Afula and 1.3 for Hapoel Ra'anana (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hapoel Afula are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 1.72 for Hapoel Ra'anana. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +14.7%. This match finished 3-2.

Hapoel Afula vs Hapoel Ra'anana Prediction— Israel - Liga Leumit

Match Preview & Prediction

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