Today / Israel - Liga Leumit / Hapoel Afula vs Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

Hapoel Afula vs Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa Prediction— Israel - Liga Leumit

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 16:00

Hapoel Afula

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WWW ··

UPCOMING

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLL ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 56% chance

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+10.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-16.6%0-24.4%0-31.9%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.4%1-111.1%1-27.3%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-19.2%2-26.1%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.9%3-15.1%3-23.4%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.1%4+-22.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.4% 55.6% 1.80 -12.9%

Draw 23.2% 28.6% 3.50 -11.3%

Away win 28.3% 27.8% 3.60 +1.1%

Over 2.5 59.7% 54.1% 1.85 +10.4%

Over 3.5 36.6% 30.8% 3.25 +18.9%

BTTS 59.0% 55.6% 1.80 +6.2%

Home O1.5 49.3% 54.6% 1.83 -9.8%

Away O1.5 42.2% 35.1% 2.85 +20.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 15%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.0%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 2–0 7.0%

#4 1–0 8.4%

#5 1–2 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hapoel Afula1.7

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HAPOEL AFULA · PPG 1.75

MACCABI KABILIO JAFFA · PPG 1.19

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

56%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.34 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hapoel Afula (H) 48.4%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -12.9%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -11.3%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa (A) 28.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +1.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hapoel Afula face Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa in Israel - Liga Leumit on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hapoel Afula a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 28%, so Hapoel Afula are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Hapoel Afula and 1.3 for Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hapoel Afula are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.19 for Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +20.3%.

Hapoel Afula vs Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa Prediction— Israel - Liga Leumit

Match Preview & Prediction

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