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FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Šiauliai Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Matchday 30 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 16:00

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

PPG 1.69 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWL

UPCOMING

Šiauliai

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 75% chance

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-13.1%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.3%1-17.6%1-23.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.3%2-19.4%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.5%3-17.8%3-23.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-09.5%4+-18.7%4+-24.0%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.8% 82.0% 1.22 -24.6%

Draw 18.1% 18.2% 5.50 -0.3%

Away win 20.1% 9.1% 11.00 +72.7%

Over 2.5 63.7% 69.4% 1.44 -8.3%

Over 3.5 40.4% 47.6% 2.10 -15.2%

BTTS 55.9% 52.4% 1.91 +6.8%

Home O1.5 66.3% 78.1% 1.28 -15.1%

Away O1.5 26.1% 23.1% 4.33 +7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -25.8%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.9%

H 62% / xG 2.5-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.3%

#2 1–1 7.6%

#3 2–1 9.4%

#4 3–0 8.5%

#5 3–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FK Zalgiris Vilnius2.5

Šiauliai0.9

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FK ZALGIRIS VILNIUS · PPG 1.69

ŠIAULIAI · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

75%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.56 for Home, form 1.69 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

FK Zalgiris Vilnius (H) 61.8%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -24.6%

Draw 18.1%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -0.3%

Šiauliai (A) 20.1%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV +72.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

FK Zalgiris Vilnius face Šiauliai in Lithuania - A Lyga on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FK Zalgiris Vilnius a 62% chance, the draw 18% and Šiauliai 20%, so FK Zalgiris Vilnius are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for FK Zalgiris Vilnius and 0.9 for Šiauliai (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FK Zalgiris Vilnius are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 0.50 for Šiauliai. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +49.4%.

FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Šiauliai Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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