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Kauno Žalgiris vs Džiugas Telšiai Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Matchday 30 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 15:45

Kauno Žalgiris

PPG 1.79 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDD

UPCOMING

Džiugas Telšiai

PPG 1.54 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLD

// Model verdict

Home 67% chance

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-16.1%0-22.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.3%1-110.7%1-24.0%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.6%2-19.4%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.4%3-15.6%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-13.7%4+-21.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% 71.4% 1.40 -21.7%

Draw 23.2% 25.0% 4.00 -4.3%

Away win 20.9% 15.4% 6.50 +21.5%

Over 2.5 50.6% 54.1% 1.85 -6.4%

Over 3.5 28.7% 30.8% 3.25 -4.0%

BTTS 48.5% 51.3% 1.95 -5.4%

Home O1.5 49.9% 61.7% 1.62 -19.2%

Away O1.5 19.5% 22.2% 4.50 -7.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -25.8%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 56% / xG 1.8-0.7 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.3%

#2 2–0 12.6%

#3 1–1 10.7%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kauno Žalgiris1.8

Džiugas Telšiai0.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KAUNO ŽALGIRIS · PPG 1.79

DŽIUGAS TELŠIAI · PPG 1.54

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

67%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.02 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Kauno Žalgiris (H) 55.9%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -21.7%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -4.3%

Džiugas Telšiai (A) 20.9%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +21.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kauno Žalgiris face Džiugas Telšiai in Lithuania - A Lyga on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kauno Žalgiris a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Džiugas Telšiai 21%, so Kauno Žalgiris are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Kauno Žalgiris and 0.7 for Džiugas Telšiai (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kauno Žalgiris are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 1.54 for Džiugas Telšiai. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +14.9%.

Kauno Žalgiris vs Džiugas Telšiai Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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