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Jaro 2 vs VPS II Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Group C ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 15:30

Jaro 2

PPG 1.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

VPS II

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 86% chance

Combined xG of 5.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 80.8% vs bookmaker-implied 87.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-11.6%0-21.9%0-31.5%0-4+1.6%1 1-01.8%1-14.2%1-25.1%1-34.0%1-4+4.2%2 2-02.3%2-15.5%2-26.6%2-35.2%2-4+5.4%3 3-02.0%3-14.8%3-25.7%3-34.5%3-4+4.7%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-15.8%4+-26.9%4+-35.5%4+-4+5.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 31.3% 3.20 +45.9%

Draw 18.9% 22.2% 4.50 -9.0%

Away win 35.5% 57.8% 1.73 -38.6%

Over 2.5 80.8% 87.7% 1.14 -7.9%

Over 3.5 56.6% 73.5% 1.36 -23.0%

BTTS 69.7% 83.3% 1.20 -16.4%

Home O1.5 66.3% — — —

Away O1.5 69.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 26%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob69.7%

H 46% / xG 2.6-2.4 / O2.5 81% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.6%

#2 3–2 5.7%

#3 2–1 5.5%

#4 2–3 5.2%

#5 3–1 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jaro 22.6

VPS II2.4

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.8% · O3.5 PROB 56.6%

Form & verdict PPG

JARO 2 · PPG 1.78

VPS II · PPG 0.70

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

86%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.23 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Jaro 2 (H) 45.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +45.9%

Draw 18.9%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -9.0%

VPS II (A) 35.5%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -38.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jaro 2 face VPS II in Finland - Kakkonen Group C on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jaro 2 a 46% chance, the draw 19% and VPS II 36%, so Jaro 2 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Jaro 2 and 2.4 for VPS II (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jaro 2 are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 0.70 for VPS II. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +37.6%.

Jaro 2 vs VPS II Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Match Preview & Prediction

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