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Vaajakoski vs JS Hercules Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Group C ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 13:00

Vaajakoski

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

JS Hercules

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 80% chance

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.6% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-12.1%0-21.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.4%1 1-03.9%1-15.9%1-24.5%1-32.3%1-4+1.2%2 2-05.3%2-18.1%2-26.1%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.8%3-17.4%3-25.6%3-32.8%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-19.8%4+-27.5%4+-33.8%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.7% 59.9% 1.67 -7.0%

Draw 19.5% 22.2% 4.50 -7.3%

Away win 24.7% 29.4% 3.40 -9.6%

Over 2.5 72.6% 83.3% 1.20 -12.9%

Over 3.5 51.1% 66.7% 1.50 -23.4%

BTTS 65.7% 80.0% 1.25 -17.9%

Home O1.5 66.3% 78.7% 1.27 -15.8%

Away O1.5 47.1% 57.5% 1.74 -18.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 26%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob65.7%

H 56% / xG 2.7-1.5 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.1%

#2 1–1 5.9%

#3 3–1 7.4%

#4 2–2 6.1%

#5 1–2 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vaajakoski2.7

JS Hercules1.5

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 51.1%

Form & verdict PPG

VAAJAKOSKI · PPG 1.44

JS HERCULES · PPG 0.78

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

80%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.23 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Vaajakoski (H) 55.7%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -7.0%

Draw 19.5%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -7.3%

JS Hercules (A) 24.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vaajakoski face JS Hercules in Finland - Kakkonen Group C on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vaajakoski a 56% chance, the draw 20% and JS Hercules 25%, so Vaajakoski are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Vaajakoski and 1.5 for JS Hercules (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vaajakoski are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.78 for JS Hercules.

Vaajakoski vs JS Hercules Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Kakkonen Group C Predictions