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GBK vs JBK Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Group C ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 15:30

GBK

PPG 1.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

JBK

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 77% chance

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 80.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-14.1%0-23.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-05.9%1-18.7%1-26.3%1-33.1%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.3%2-19.1%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.4%3-16.4%3-24.7%3-32.3%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-15.5%4+-24.1%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 42.9% 2.33 +11.8%

Draw 21.8% 25.3% 3.96 -8.2%

Away win 30.2% 42.9% 2.33 -29.6%

Over 2.5 68.4% 80.6% 1.24 -15.2%

Over 3.5 45.0% 58.5% 1.71 -23.1%

BTTS 63.5% 80.0% 1.25 -20.6%

Home O1.5 60.2% 62.9% 1.59 -4.3%

Away O1.5 42.2% 62.5% 1.60 -32.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 26%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.5%

H 48% / xG 2.1-1.5 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 6.3%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

GBK2.1

JBK1.5

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GBK · PPG 1.60

JBK · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

77%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.65 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

GBK (H) 48.0%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV +11.8%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.96 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -8.2%

JBK (A) 30.2%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV -29.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

GBK face JBK in Finland - Kakkonen Group C on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives GBK a 48% chance, the draw 22% and JBK 30%, so GBK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for GBK and 1.5 for JBK (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, GBK are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.11 for JBK. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +3.7%.

GBK vs JBK Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Kakkonen Group C Predictions