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Zimbru vs Sheriff Tiraspol Prediction— Moldova - Super Liga

Matchday 10 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 17:00

Zimbru

PPG 1.84 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sheriff Tiraspol

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 58.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-17.6%0-25.2%0-32.4%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.4%1-111.5%1-27.9%1-33.6%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.4%2-18.8%2-26.0%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.3%3-14.5%3-23.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.4%4+-21.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.1% 42.6% 2.35 -1.1%

Draw 23.6% 30.8% 3.25 -14.0%

Away win 34.3% 38.5% 2.60 -10.8%

Over 2.5 59.7% 50.0% 2.00 +19.4%

Over 3.5 36.7% 29.9% 3.34 +22.6%

BTTS 60.3% 58.5% 1.71 +3.1%

Home O1.5 40.8% 42.6% 2.35 -4.1%

Away O1.5 40.9% 39.8% 2.51 +2.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.3%

H 42% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1✓ 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 1–0 8.4%

#5 2–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zimbru1.5

Sheriff Tiraspol1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ZIMBRU · PPG 1.84

SHERIFF TIRASPOL · PPG 1.86

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.15 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Zimbru (H) 42.1%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -1.1%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -14.0%

Sheriff Tiraspol (A) 34.3%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zimbru face Sheriff Tiraspol in Moldova - Super Liga on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zimbru a 42% chance, the draw 24% and Sheriff Tiraspol 34%, so Zimbru are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Zimbru and 1.4 for Sheriff Tiraspol (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zimbru are averaging 1.84 points per game versus 1.86 for Sheriff Tiraspol. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +22.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Zimbru vs Sheriff Tiraspol Prediction— Moldova - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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