Today / Moldova - Super Liga / Sheriff Tiraspol vs Petrocub

Sheriff Tiraspol vs Petrocub Prediction— Moldova - Super Liga

Matchday 11 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 17:00

Sheriff Tiraspol

PPG 2.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Petrocub

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home 59% chance

Model probability 56.5% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-15.1%0-22.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.6%1-19.9%1-23.9%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-19.7%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.0%3-16.3%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-14.8%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% 59.9% 1.67 -5.7%

Draw 22.4% 28.6% 3.50 -13.0%

Away win 21.1% 23.1% 4.33 -5.2%

Over 2.5 53.8% 51.3% 1.95 +4.9%

Over 3.5 31.7% 31.3% 3.20 +1.4%

BTTS 52.9% 54.6% 1.83 -3.2%

Home O1.5 55.8% 54.9% 1.82 +1.6%

Away O1.5 22.6% 26.7% 3.75 -9.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.9%

H 56% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.3%

#2 1–1 9.9%

#3 1–0 12.6%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sheriff Tiraspol2.0

Petrocub0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SHERIFF TIRASPOL · PPG 2.60

PETROCUB · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

59%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.17 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sheriff Tiraspol (H) 56.5%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -5.7%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -13.0%

Petrocub (A) 21.1%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -5.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sheriff Tiraspol face Petrocub in Moldova - Super Liga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sheriff Tiraspol a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Petrocub 21%, so Sheriff Tiraspol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Sheriff Tiraspol and 0.8 for Petrocub (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sheriff Tiraspol are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 1.00 for Petrocub. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +12.0%.

Sheriff Tiraspol vs Petrocub Prediction— Moldova - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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