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Milsami Orhei vs Petrocub Prediction— Moldova - Super Liga

Matchday 9 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 17:00

Milsami Orhei

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLWD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Petrocub

PPG 1.59 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-112.2%0-29.2%0-34.6%0-4+2.5%1 1-08.1%1-112.3%1-29.3%1-34.7%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.1%2-16.2%2-24.7%2-32.4%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.4%3-12.1%3-21.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.9% 26.3% 3.80 +5.9%

Draw 25.3% 27.8% 3.60 -5.3%

Away win 45.9% 57.1% 1.75 -19.7%

Over 2.5 53.9% 51.3% 1.95 +5.1%

Over 3.5 31.6% 31.3% 3.20 +1.1%

BTTS 54.7% 55.6% 1.80 -1.5%

Home O1.5 30.6% 29.2% 3.42 +4.7%

Away O1.5 46.1% 53.5% 1.87 -13.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.7%

A 46% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–1 12.2%

#3 1–2 9.3%

#4 0–2 9.2%

#5 0–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Milsami Orhei1.0

Petrocub1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MILSAMI ORHEI · PPG 1.43

PETROCUB · PPG 1.59

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.51 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Milsami Orhei (H) 28.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +5.9%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -5.3%

Petrocub (A) 45.9%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -19.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Milsami Orhei face Petrocub in Moldova - Super Liga on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Milsami Orhei a 29% chance, the draw 25% and Petrocub 46%, so Petrocub are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Milsami Orhei and 1.5 for Petrocub (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Milsami Orhei are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.59 for Petrocub. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Milsami Orhei vs Petrocub Prediction— Moldova - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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