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CSF Bălți vs Zimbru Prediction— Moldova - Super Liga

Matchday 9 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 15:00

CSF Bălți

PPG 1.19 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLL

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Zimbru

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-17.2%0-28.5%0-36.7%0-4+6.9%1 1-03.4%1-18.1%1-29.6%1-37.6%1-4+7.8%2 2-01.9%2-14.6%2-25.4%2-34.3%2-4+4.4%3 3-00.7%3-11.7%3-22.0%3-31.6%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.3% 2.4% 41.00 +316.4%

Draw 19.9% 9.1% 11.00 +71.3%

Away win 64.8% 95.2% 1.05 -32.0%

Over 2.5 67.3% 73.5% 1.36 -8.5%

Over 3.5 43.5% 50.0% 2.00 -13.0%

BTTS 61.3% 34.7% 2.88 +76.5%

Home O1.5 30.6% 20.4% 4.90 +49.9%

Away O1.5 65.4% 79.4% 1.26 -17.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob61.3%

A 65% / xG 1.1-2.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.6%

#2 1–1 8.1%

#3 0–2 8.5%

#4 1–3 7.6%

#5 0–3 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CSF Bălți1.1

Zimbru2.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CSF BĂLȚI · PPG 1.19

ZIMBRU · PPG 1.75

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.23 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

CSF Bălți (H) 15.3%

ODDS 41.00 · IMPLIED 2.4% EV +316.4%

Draw 19.9%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV +71.3%

Zimbru (A) 64.8%

ODDS 1.05 · IMPLIED 95.2% EV -32.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

CSF Bălți face Zimbru in Moldova - Super Liga on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CSF Bălți a 15% chance, the draw 20% and Zimbru 65%, so Zimbru are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for CSF Bălți and 2.4 for Zimbru (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CSF Bălți are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 1.75 for Zimbru. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +76.5%. This match finished 0-4.

CSF Bălți vs Zimbru Prediction— Moldova - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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