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Sireți vs Sheriff Tiraspol Prediction— Moldova - Super Liga

Matchday 8 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 17:00

Sireți

PPG 1.55 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sheriff Tiraspol

PPG 1.97 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-112.1%0-210.0%0-35.5%0-4+3.3%1 1-07.1%1-111.7%1-29.6%1-35.3%1-4+3.1%2 2-03.4%2-15.6%2-24.6%2-32.5%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.1%3-11.8%3-21.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.2% — — —

Draw 24.6% — — —

Away win 51.2% — — —

Over 2.5 53.4% — — —

Over 3.5 31.4% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 47.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 42%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 25%

ROI -47.4%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob53.1%

A 51% / xG 1.0-1.6 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 0–1 12.1%

#3 0–2 10.0%

#4 1–2 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sireți1.0

Sheriff Tiraspol1.6

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SIREȚI · PPG 1.55

SHERIFF TIRASPOL · PPG 1.97

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.68 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Sireți (H) 24.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sheriff Tiraspol (A) 51.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sireți face Sheriff Tiraspol in Moldova - Super Liga on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sireți a 24% chance, the draw 25% and Sheriff Tiraspol 51%, so Sheriff Tiraspol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Sireți and 1.6 for Sheriff Tiraspol (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sireți are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.97 for Sheriff Tiraspol.

Sireți vs Sheriff Tiraspol Prediction— Moldova - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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