Today / Moldova - Super Liga / Sheriff Tiraspol vs Politehnica UTM

Sheriff Tiraspol vs Politehnica UTM Prediction— Moldova - Super Liga

Matchday 9 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 17:00

Sheriff Tiraspol

PPG 2.22 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWL

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Politehnica UTM

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-13.2%0-21.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.2%1-17.8%1-23.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.0%2-19.5%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.1%3-17.8%3-23.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-08.9%4+-18.5%4+-24.1%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.4% 83.3% 1.20 -29.9%

Draw 20.1% 16.7% 6.00 +12.4%

Away win 21.6% 10.5% 9.50 +63.1%

Over 2.5 64.6% 66.7% 1.50 -3.1%

Over 3.5 43.5% 48.1% 2.08 -9.5%

BTTS 60.3% 57.1% 1.75 +5.5%

Home O1.5 65.1% 80.0% 1.25 -18.6%

Away O1.5 25.7% 23.3% 4.30 +6.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob60.3%

H 58% / xG 2.4-1.0 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.8%

#2 2–0 10.0%

#3 2–1 9.5%

#4 3–0 8.1%

#5 1–2 3.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sheriff Tiraspol2.4

Politehnica UTM1.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SHERIFF TIRASPOL · PPG 2.22

POLITEHNICA UTM · PPG 1.22

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.49 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sheriff Tiraspol (H) 58.4%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -29.9%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +12.4%

Politehnica UTM (A) 21.6%

ODDS 9.50 · IMPLIED 10.5% EV +63.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sheriff Tiraspol face Politehnica UTM in Moldova - Super Liga on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sheriff Tiraspol a 58% chance, the draw 20% and Politehnica UTM 22%, so Sheriff Tiraspol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Sheriff Tiraspol and 1.0 for Politehnica UTM (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sheriff Tiraspol are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 1.22 for Politehnica UTM. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +17.3%. This match finished 4-0.

Sheriff Tiraspol vs Politehnica UTM Prediction— Moldova - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Moldova - Super Liga Predictions