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Politehnica UTM vs Dacia-Buiucani Prediction— Moldova - Super Liga

Matchday 11 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Politehnica UTM

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Dacia-Buiucani

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-17.8%0-23.8%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.5%1-112.1%1-25.9%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-19.4%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.0%3-14.8%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.6%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.9% 48.8% 2.05 -1.8%

Draw 26.3% 30.3% 3.30 -7.9%

Away win 25.8% 33.3% 3.00 -13.6%

Over 2.5 50.6% 51.3% 1.95 -1.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 31.8% 3.14 -5.9%

BTTS 52.9% 58.8% 1.70 -10.1%

Home O1.5 44.5% 47.4% 2.11 -6.1%

Away O1.5 26.9% 37.3% 2.68 -16.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 48% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 12.5%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Politehnica UTM1.5

Dacia-Buiucani1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

POLITEHNICA UTM · PPG 1.20

DACIA-BUIUCANI · PPG 1.40

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

57%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Politehnica UTM (H) 47.9%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -1.8%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.9%

Dacia-Buiucani (A) 25.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -13.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Politehnica UTM face Dacia-Buiucani in Moldova - Super Liga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Politehnica UTM a 48% chance, the draw 26% and Dacia-Buiucani 26%, so Politehnica UTM are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Politehnica UTM and 1.0 for Dacia-Buiucani (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Politehnica UTM are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.40 for Dacia-Buiucani.

Politehnica UTM vs Dacia-Buiucani Prediction— Moldova - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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