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Politehnica UTM vs Sireți Prediction— Moldova - Super Liga

Matchday 10 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Politehnica UTM

PPG 1.39 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sireți

PPG 1.02 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-16.4%0-23.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.3%1-111.2%1-26.1%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.9%2-19.7%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.2%3-15.7%3-23.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.6%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.1% 57.8% 1.73 -11.6%

Draw 24.2% 27.8% 3.60 -7.7%

Away win 24.7% 25.6% 3.90 -2.2%

Over 2.5 53.5% 57.1% 1.75 -6.4%

Over 3.5 32.1% 37.0% 2.70 -13.3%

BTTS 55.0% 59.9% 1.67 -8.2%

Home O1.5 48.9% 59.2% 1.69 -17.4%

Away O1.5 32.9% 31.1% 3.22 +5.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.0%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 1–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Politehnica UTM1.7

Sireți1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.1%

Form & verdict PPG

POLITEHNICA UTM · PPG 1.39

SIREȚI · PPG 1.02

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.65 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Politehnica UTM (H) 51.1%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -11.6%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.7%

Sireți (A) 24.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -2.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Politehnica UTM face Sireți in Moldova - Super Liga on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Politehnica UTM a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Sireți 25%, so Politehnica UTM are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Politehnica UTM and 1.1 for Sireți (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Politehnica UTM are averaging 1.39 points per game versus 1.02 for Sireți. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +6.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Politehnica UTM vs Sireți Prediction— Moldova - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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