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Pathum Utd vs N. Ratchasima Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Matchday 28 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:30

Pathum Utd

PPG 1.85 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

N. Ratchasima

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWL

// Model verdict

Home 78% chance

Model probability 83.3% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2% — a clear edge.

+10.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-12.2%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.0%1-15.6%1-21.2%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.6%2-17.1%2-21.5%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-014.1%3-16.0%3-21.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-016.5%4+-17.0%4+-21.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 83.3% 75.2% 1.33 +10.8%

Draw 12.4% 23.8% 4.20 -47.9%

Away win 4.4% 11.1% 9.00 -60.4%

Over 2.5 57.2% 51.3% 1.95 +11.5%

Over 3.5 34.8% 29.4% 3.40 +18.3%

BTTS 32.0% 43.5% 2.30 -26.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -54.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 77%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob32.0%

H 83% / xG 2.5-0.4 / O2.5 57% / NoBTTS 32%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.6%

#2 3–0 14.1%

#3 1–0✓ 13.0%

#4 4–0 9.0%

#5 2–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pathum Utd2.5

N. Ratchasima0.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.2% · O3.5 PROB 34.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PATHUM UTD · PPG 1.85

N. RATCHASIMA · PPG 0.62

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

78%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.85), Away POOR (0.62) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Pathum Utd (H) 83.3%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV +10.8%

Draw 12.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -47.9%

N. Ratchasima (A) 4.4%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV -60.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pathum Utd face N. Ratchasima in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pathum Utd a 83% chance, the draw 12% and N. Ratchasima 4%, so Pathum Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Pathum Utd and 0.4 for N. Ratchasima (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 32% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pathum Utd are averaging 1.85 points per game versus 0.62 for N. Ratchasima. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Pathum Utd vs N. Ratchasima Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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