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Lyn vs Egersund Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 15:00

Lyn

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWD

UPCOMING

Egersund

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 71% chance

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.9%0-23.3%0-31.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-04.9%1-18.2%1-26.8%1-33.8%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.1%2-18.5%2-27.1%2-33.9%2-4+2.4%3 3-03.5%3-15.9%3-24.9%3-32.7%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-15.0%4+-24.2%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.6% 48.8% 2.05 +3.7%

Draw 20.9% 28.6% 3.50 -16.1%

Away win 28.4% 34.7% 2.88 -10.9%

Over 2.5 68.4% 71.4% 1.40 -4.2%

Over 3.5 49.4% 52.4% 1.91 -5.7%

BTTS 63.5% 73.5% 1.36 -13.6%

Home O1.5 60.2% 61.7% 1.62 -2.5%

Away O1.5 47.9% 52.4% 1.91 -8.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 97 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 26%

ROI 21.6%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.5%

H 51% / xG 2.1-1.7 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.5%

#2 1–1 8.2%

#3 1–2 6.8%

#4 3–1 5.9%

#5 2–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lyn2.1

Egersund1.7

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LYN · PPG 1.20

EGERSUND · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

71%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lyn (H) 50.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +3.7%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -16.1%

Egersund (A) 28.4%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -10.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lyn face Egersund in Norway - 1st Division on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lyn a 51% chance, the draw 21% and Egersund 28%, so Lyn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Lyn and 1.7 for Egersund (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lyn are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.78 for Egersund. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +3.8%.

Lyn vs Egersund Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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