Today / Norway - 1st Division / Stabaek vs Moss

Stabaek vs Moss Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 18:00

Stabaek

PPG 2.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWL

UPCOMING

Moss

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLDL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.9% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-11.2%0-20.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.2%1-14.1%1-22.0%1-30.6%1-4+0.2%2 2-07.2%2-17.0%2-23.4%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.2%3-18.0%3-23.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-017.0%4+-116.6%4+-28.0%4+-32.6%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 72.5% 73.5% 1.36 -1.4%

Draw 14.8% 20.8% 4.80 -17.4%

Away win 12.7% 16.7% 6.00 -14.3%

Over 2.5 72.6% 80.0% 1.25 -9.3%

Over 3.5 52.2% 61.7% 1.62 -15.4%

BTTS 61.5% 71.4% 1.40 -13.9%

Home O1.5 77.9% 82.0% 1.22 -5.0%

Away O1.5 27.2% 38.2% 2.62 -17.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 97 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 26%

ROI 21.6%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob61.5%

H 72% / xG 3.4-1.0 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 8.2%

#2 3–1 8.0%

#3 2–0 7.2%

#4 4–0 7.1%

#5 2–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stabaek3.4

Moss1.0

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.2%

Form & verdict PPG

STABAEK · PPG 2.67

MOSS · PPG 0.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.47 for Home, form 2.67 vs 0.90 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Stabaek (H) 72.5%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -1.4%

Draw 14.8%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -17.4%

Moss (A) 12.7%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -14.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stabaek face Moss in Norway - 1st Division on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stabaek a 73% chance, the draw 15% and Moss 13%, so Stabaek are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Stabaek and 1.0 for Moss (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stabaek are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 0.90 for Moss. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +15.6%.

Stabaek vs Moss Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - 1st Division Predictions