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Sandnes ULF vs Ranheim Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Sandnes ULF

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLW

UPCOMING

Ranheim

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 76% chance

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.6% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-12.5%0-22.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-03.5%1-16.2%1-25.6%1-33.3%1-4+2.2%2 2-04.3%2-17.7%2-26.9%2-34.1%2-4+2.8%3 3-03.5%3-16.3%3-25.7%3-33.4%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-17.1%4+-26.3%4+-33.8%4+-4+2.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% 46.5% 2.15 +11.6%

Draw 19.4% 27.8% 3.60 -18.1%

Away win 28.7% 37.0% 2.70 -13.5%

Over 2.5 72.6% 76.9% 1.30 -5.6%

Over 3.5 50.8% 57.8% 1.73 -12.1%

BTTS 67.8% 76.9% 1.30 -11.9%

Home O1.5 66.3% 61.7% 1.62 +7.4%

Away O1.5 47.9% 59.9% 1.67 -20.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 97 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 26%

ROI 21.6%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob67.8%

H 52% / xG 2.5-1.8 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.7%

#2 1–1 6.2%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 3–1 6.3%

#5 1–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sandnes ULF2.5

Ranheim1.8

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 50.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SANDNES ULF · PPG 1.30

RANHEIM · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

76%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.68 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sandnes ULF (H) 51.9%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +11.6%

Draw 19.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -18.1%

Ranheim (A) 28.7%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -13.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sandnes ULF face Ranheim in Norway - 1st Division on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sandnes ULF a 52% chance, the draw 19% and Ranheim 29%, so Sandnes ULF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Sandnes ULF and 1.8 for Ranheim (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sandnes ULF are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 0.67 for Ranheim. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +34.4%.

Sandnes ULF vs Ranheim Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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