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Kongsvinger vs Raufoss Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Kongsvinger

PPG 2.30 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWD

UPCOMING

Raufoss

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.3% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-10.8%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-03.1%1-13.1%1-21.5%1-30.5%1-4+0.2%2 2-05.9%2-15.9%2-22.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.6%3-17.5%3-23.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-019.6%4+-119.5%4+-29.7%4+-33.2%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 77.4% 82.0% 1.22 -5.6%

Draw 14.8% 18.2% 5.50 -11.2%

Away win 7.8% 10.0% 10.00 -13.2%

Over 2.5 77.4% 83.3% 1.20 -7.1%

Over 3.5 56.6% 65.4% 1.53 -13.4%

BTTS 61.5% 69.4% 1.44 -11.4%

Home O1.5 78.3% 85.5% 1.17 -8.4%

Away O1.5 29.5% 30.8% 3.25 -2.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 97 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 26%

ROI 21.6%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 82%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob61.5%

H 77% / xG 3.8-1.0 / O2.5 77% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 7.6%

#2 3–1 7.5%

#3 4–0 7.2%

#4 4–1 7.2%

#5 1–1 3.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kongsvinger3.8

Raufoss1.0

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 77.4% · O3.5 PROB 56.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KONGSVINGER · PPG 2.30

RAUFOSS · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.82 for Home, form 2.30 vs 0.60 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Kongsvinger (H) 77.4%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -5.6%

Draw 14.8%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -11.2%

Raufoss (A) 7.8%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV -13.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kongsvinger face Raufoss in Norway - 1st Division on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kongsvinger a 77% chance, the draw 15% and Raufoss 8%, so Kongsvinger are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.8 for Kongsvinger and 1.0 for Raufoss (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kongsvinger are averaging 2.30 points per game versus 0.60 for Raufoss. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +12.3%.

Kongsvinger vs Raufoss Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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