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Haugesund vs Sogndal Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Haugesund

PPG 2.44 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWW

UPCOMING

Sogndal

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.6% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.4%0-10.6%0-20.4%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-01.8%1-12.4%1-21.6%1-30.7%1-4+0.3%2 2-03.7%2-14.8%2-23.2%2-31.4%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.0%3-16.7%3-24.4%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-015.7%4+-120.8%4+-213.8%4+-36.1%4+-4+2.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.4% 74.1% 1.35 -5.0%

Draw 14.8% 20.0% 5.00 -15.6%

Away win 14.9% 16.7% 6.00 -6.4%

Over 2.5 79.6% 82.0% 1.22 -2.9%

Over 3.5 57.4% 65.4% 1.53 -12.2%

BTTS 63.5% 73.5% 1.36 -13.6%

Home O1.5 78.3% 83.3% 1.20 -6.0%

Away O1.5 42.2% 40.0% 2.50 +5.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 97 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 26%

ROI 21.6%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 75%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)4.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.5%

H 70% / xG 4.1-1.3 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–1 6.9%

#2 3–1 6.7%

#3 2–2 3.2%

#4 5–1 5.7%

#5 4–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Haugesund4.1

Sogndal1.3

COMBINED 5.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.6% · O3.5 PROB 57.4%

Form & verdict PPG

HAUGESUND · PPG 2.44

SOGNDAL · PPG 0.60

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.80 for Home, form 2.44 vs 0.60 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Haugesund (H) 70.4%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -5.0%

Draw 14.8%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -15.6%

Sogndal (A) 14.9%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Haugesund face Sogndal in Norway - 1st Division on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Haugesund a 70% chance, the draw 15% and Sogndal 15%, so Haugesund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.1 for Haugesund and 1.3 for Sogndal (5.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-1. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Haugesund are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 0.60 for Sogndal. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +30.1%.

Haugesund vs Sogndal Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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