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ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

ODD Ballklubb

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLW

UPCOMING

Stromsgodset

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-14.8%0-24.2%0-32.5%0-4+1.6%1 1-05.0%1-18.8%1-27.8%1-34.6%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.6%2-18.1%2-27.2%2-34.2%2-4+2.8%3 3-02.8%3-15.0%3-24.4%3-32.6%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.5%4+-23.1%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.9% 32.3% 3.10 +17.5%

Draw 20.9% 26.3% 3.80 -12.3%

Away win 41.2% 52.4% 1.91 -21.3%

Over 2.5 68.4% 78.1% 1.28 -12.4%

Over 3.5 45.0% 57.8% 1.73 -22.1%

BTTS 63.5% 76.9% 1.30 -17.4%

Home O1.5 55.2% 54.6% 1.83 +1.0%

Away O1.5 47.9% 69.4% 1.44 -31.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 97 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 26%

ROI 21.6%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.5%

A 41% / xG 1.8-1.8 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.8%

#2 1–1 8.8%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 1–3 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ODD Ballklubb1.8

Stromsgodset1.8

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ODD BALLKLUBB · PPG 1.70

STROMSGODSET · PPG 1.80

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.07 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

ODD Ballklubb (H) 37.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +17.5%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -12.3%

Stromsgodset (A) 41.2%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -21.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

ODD Ballklubb face Stromsgodset in Norway - 1st Division on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ODD Ballklubb a 38% chance, the draw 21% and Stromsgodset 41%, so Stromsgodset are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for ODD Ballklubb and 1.8 for Stromsgodset (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.80 for Stromsgodset. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +24.8%.

ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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