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Weiche F. vs Schoningen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

North - 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:30

Weiche F.

PPG 1.29 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Schoningen

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 87.0% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4% — a clear edge.

+23.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-11.6%0-21.7%0-31.2%0-4+1.1%1 1-02.0%1-14.3%1-24.7%1-33.4%1-4+3.1%2 2-02.7%2-15.9%2-26.5%2-34.7%2-4+4.2%3 3-02.5%3-15.5%3-26.0%3-34.3%3-4+3.9%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-17.4%4+-28.1%4+-35.9%4+-4+5.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.3% 51.3% 1.95 +0.0%

Draw 18.0% 26.0% 3.85 -30.7%

Away win 30.8% 32.3% 3.10 -4.5%

Over 2.5 87.0% 70.4% 1.42 +23.5%

Over 3.5 72.7% 48.8% 2.05 +49.0%

BTTS 83.1% 72.5% 1.38 +14.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob83.1%

H 51% / xG 2.8-2.2 / O2.5 87% / BTTS 83%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.5%

#2 3–2 6.0%

#3 2–1 5.9%

#4 3–1 5.5%

#5 2–3 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Weiche F.2.8

Schoningen2.2

COMBINED 4.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 87.0% · O3.5 PROB 72.7%

Form & verdict PPG

WEICHE F. · PPG 1.29

SCHONINGEN · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.29), Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Weiche F. (H) 51.3%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +0.0%

Draw 18.0%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -30.7%

Schoningen (A) 30.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -4.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Weiche F. face Schoningen in Germany - Regionalliga - Nord on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Weiche F. a 51% chance, the draw 18% and Schoningen 31%, so Weiche F. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Weiche F. and 2.2 for Schoningen (4.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 87% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 83% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Weiche F. are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.14 for Schoningen. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +49.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Weiche F. vs Schoningen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

Match Preview & Prediction

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